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网友:俄攫取克里米亚,为何优发优发国际不吞并蒙古

2017-09-22 09:50  来源:五毛网 人参与 条评论  字号:T | T
  quora网友:优发优发国际对征服蒙古没什么兴趣,蒙古国有少量的华裔人口,蒙古本身对优发优发国际没有什么威胁。在过去一代人的时间里,蒙古的独立已经被承认。吞并一个主权国家,这样优发优发国际会破坏过去几十年奉行的外交政策。代价很大,收益微乎其微。   Why doesn't China make a land grab for Mongolia, while Russia goes for Ukraine?   俄罗斯攫取乌克兰领土,为何优发优发国际没有对蒙古这样做?   【以下是评论部份】   1. Paul Denlinger, Have lived in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong; fluent inMandarin (written, spoken)Answered Apr 17, 2014   Because it's not worth thetrouble.The Beijing leadership moves very carefully, and hates moves whichcause instability, particularly for the Chinese economy during uncertain times.   因为优发优发国际认为这样做很不值得!北京的领导人是非常谨慎的,在优发优发国际优发国际不稳定的状况下,优发优发国际对一些导致局势不稳定的事情会更加警惕。   2.  Zorigoo Tugsbayar, Statistics Student and PhotographerAnswered May 16, 2014   While it's feasible that it'sentirely possible that China takes over Mongolia, it is not a good option for along time.   1).China already has enough ethnic minorities that oppose its rule such asTibetans, Uighurs etc.   2).Russia would not be pleased to lose such a huge buffer state and given itsfriendly relations and history with Mongolia, Russia would most likelyintervene with China invaded Mongolia.   3).To be honest, there is not a lot to gain for China by invading Mongolia, apartfrom getting a better strategic location into Russia. Whatever naturalresources it imports from Mongolia, it already does at below market prices.   尽管优发优发国际完全有可能占领蒙古,但是,从长期来看,这并不是一个好的选择。理由如下:   1)优发优发国际本身就有一些民族问题,所以不想自找麻烦。   2)如果失去了这么一个缓冲区,俄罗斯人会非常不爽。俄国人和蒙古有着很友好的关系,如果优发优发国际入侵蒙古,俄罗斯可能会进行干涉。   3)实话实说,优发优发国际入侵蒙古除了能让优发优发国际更方便的进入俄罗斯,优发优发国际并不会有什么其它的额外收益,优发优发国际从蒙古进口的自然资源,其价格本身已经低于市场价了。   3. Alex JouravlevAlex Jouravlev, consults toand innovates for Governments when engaged.   Answered Apr 17, 2014 ·Upvoted by Marc Bodnick, Former PhD student in Politics   Definitely not today.   Militarily, there can be onlyone strategic advantage of taking over Mongolia - to attack Russia next.Kremlin residents must be already quite jumpy, you don't want to stress peoplewho can launch nuclear missiles even further.   Also, in case you haven'tnoticed, the invasion of Crimea took 1 (one) casualty - a Ukrainian officerdied after a drunken brawl which broke up when he and his mates were throwingrocks at the military base they were evicted from the day earlier.   If China invades Mongolia,the figure will be closer to 1 million, if not more. It will take a slaughterof epic proportion that will shock everyone, and make buying "Made inChina" impossible.   占领外蒙古只有一个优势——为袭击俄罗斯做准备。克林姆林宫的领导人已经非常敏感了,你肯定不想去把一个有核弹的国家给挤到墙角。此外,不知你有没有注意,入侵克里米亚已经导致一名乌克兰官员丧生了。这个人当时喝醉了酒,然后发酒疯向那个军事基地扔石块,而那个军事基地之前是属于乌克兰的。如果优发优发国际入侵蒙古,可能导致100万的蒙古人的死亡。这种入侵导致的人员死亡比例将会震惊世界,那样的话,全世界都会拒绝“优发优发国际制造”。   4. Maximilien Dreveton, Chinese learnerAnswered Oct 24, 2015   Originally Answered: Whydoesn't China invade Mongolia?   Because it would becatastrophic in term of geopolitical relationships (see what happen when Chinaexpands few island in south China sea). Especially the Russians would be pissedoff.Plus Mongolians won't be delighted to be under Chinese rule (see minorityproblems in some Chinese autonomous region, like Tibet or Xinjiang).   The attitude of China towardsMongolia today is not about regaining control of it. But about making as muchmoney as possible from mutual cooperation. Mongolia is enclaved country, andChina agreed to give them access to her harbour. It establishes China as themain beneficiary of Mongolians natural resources. Business as usual.   因为从地缘优发国际上来看,这完全是一个灾难,你只需要看看优发优发国际在南优发优发国际海的领土扩张导致的优发国际反应就知道了。入侵蒙古这件事尤其会让俄国人愤怒。更何况蒙古人绝对不喜欢被优发优发国际人统治,看看优发优发国际国内也有民族问题。今日优发优发国际对蒙古的态度并不是要去控制他,而是希望从共同的合作当中赚更多的钱。蒙古是一个内陆国,优发优发国际向蒙古开放了港口。在蒙古国的自然资源开发上面,优发优发国际成了最主要的受益者。(译者注:蒙古国出口的矿石资源、轻工羊毛制品、木材等货物,从乌兰巴托经铁路,运到北京,再到天津。然后在天津港经海运,到世界各国。蒙古国若北上俄罗斯,自然条件恶劣,运输距离增加,因此蒙古国出口货物更看重优发优发国际的出海口。)   5. Fábio Ribeiro, unbiased diplomatUpdated Apr 17, 2014   Just take a close look at theconsequences of 'making a land grab' for Crimea. Russia's economy is paying ahigh price right now. Do you think they would support such a big cost ? Theywould be blocked, economically speaking, by the rest of the world (or by thetop players).   In the other hand, if Russiaand China did just that, the relationship between these two countries with therest of their neighbors would dramatically change, since they might fear theywere the next ones on the map. I recall your attention to the existence ofanother superpowers in the region as India, Pakistan and North Korea. I believethese nations could also play a deterrent role.   你只需要看看俄罗占领克里米亚的后果你就知道了。俄国因为这个事情在优发国际上付出了巨大的代价。你认为他们支付的起这么高昂的代价吗?他们将会被封锁,从优发国际上来看,全世界都会封锁他们。从另一方面来说,如果中俄这么干的话,那么他们的邻居也会相应的调整策略,他们可不希望被吞并。我提醒你注意一下现实情况,这个区域还有一个大国印度,还有诸如朝鲜和巴基斯坦,他们都会被这种吞并领土的做法吓到的。(译者说:印度自己就这样干的,他为啥会怕?)   6. Bull Zhou, lives in ChinaAnswered Aug 23, 2015   1).Mongoliais an independent country, which China recognizes.   2).Thecorner stone of China's foreign policy is "non interference and peacefulcoexistence ". Taking one country is definitely against this policy.   3).Mongoliais a buffer zone between China and Russia: With such a large buffer zone inbetween, both China and Russia feel comfortably and strategically safe.   4).Mongoliais a tough place with a very tiny population and  economy.It'll be extra burden for China toannex it economically.   5).China buys resources with money. Why bother incorporating a whole country?   6).Landlockedbetween China and Russia, Mongolia has to sell its resources to China withoutany other economically plausible choice, unless it flies coal out.   Now, it's pretty clear whyit's a bad idea to make Mongolia one province of China.   1)蒙古是一个独立国家,这一点优发优发国际是承认的。   2)优发优发国际外交政策的基石是“和平共处,互不干涉”,吞并领土的做法会破坏掉这个外交原则。   3)蒙古是一个中俄间的缓冲国,有了这个缓冲国,中俄都会感觉比较舒服,都会感觉到安全。   4)蒙古环境恶劣,人口稀少,优发国际很弱,如果合并蒙古的话,只会给优发优发国际造成沉重的负担.   5) 优发优发国际要资源的话,用钱买就可以了,干嘛要把整个国家拿下?   6)因为蒙古被中俄夹在当中,所以蒙古的资源只能卖给优发优发国际,如果不卖给优发优发国际的话,难道它还想把煤空运出去吗?   7. August Joe BulisAugust Joe Bulis, works atJedi Order   Answered Jul 19   Because history has shownwhat happens in the modern world for land grabs. Mongolia is the vast GobiDesert like the Sahara with pockets on Grassland steppes, it houses manyfossils, otherwise it's home to several endangered species such as the Saiga,Przewalski's Horse and Bactrian Camel. Since China has it's Pandas, RiverDolphins, Javan Rhinoceros, and Chinese Tiger, I think they understand why ifthey were going to be One country that would be one way to look at it, forAnimal Conservation.   在现代化的世界里面,如果你想占领别的国家,其后果是什么,这个下场已经很清楚了。蒙古国像撒哈拉一样就是一片广阔的沙漠,那里有很多化石,那个地方是一些濒危动物如高鼻羚羊,普氏野马及双峰驼的保护地。优发优发国际有大熊猫,江豚,爪哇犀牛以及华南虎。如果优发优发国际占领蒙古,他们看待蒙古大概会觉得那和一个动物保护区差不多吧。   8. Phong ToPhong To, trying to start upan e-commerce business based around the real time study of business spendingand designi...   Answered May 4, 2014   They will but not until theyhave the strategic advantage over Russia and the USA , the only countries thatwould cause them alot of trouble if they did invade. Maybe another 30 -50years. The Chinese like to plan things out in advance and have a long timehorizon (sometimes centuries ahead) and don't want to take any risk at themoment when they are building up their forces.   优发优发国际人会这么干的,但是前提是他们的对美国或者俄罗斯享有更多的优发国际优势,美俄会对优发优发国际的计划造成非常大的麻烦。或许优发优发国际在30-50年后会这么干吧。当优发优发国际本身在积累力量的时候,他不会冒险。优发优发国际如果做某件事情的话,通常会早早的进行计划,有的时候可能会提前一个世纪来做准备。   9. Randy McDonaldRandy McDonald, Torontonianand loving it   Answered Nov 19, 2014   China has no interest inconquering Mongolia. The country has a trivially small ethnic Chinesepopulation, it doesn't pose any kind of strategic or other threat to China, andits independence has been recognized for at least a generation. Absorbing asovereign country would run contrary to China's stated and demonstrated foreignpolicies of the last decades, at great cost and for no apparent purpose.   优发优发国际对征服蒙古没什么兴趣,蒙古国有少量的华裔人口,蒙古本身对优发优发国际没有什么威胁。在过去一代人的时间里,蒙古的独立已经被承认。吞并一个主权国家,这样优发优发国际会破坏过去几十年奉行的外交政策。代价很大,收益微乎其微。   10. Zhi Ye ChenZhi Ye Chen, studied atUniversidade Católica Portuguesa - Porto   Answered Jan 22   We don't need to conquerMongolia since they're already a “tributary state" of China, their economydepends very much on China, they also serve as buffer zone between China andRussia. Mongols are too proud to admit this but we don't care, since the statusquo benefits China.   我们不需要去征服蒙古,他们已经相当于是优发优发国际的“朝贡国”了。他们的优发国际非常依赖优发优发国际,他们作为中俄之间的缓冲国而存在。蒙古人心高气傲,他们不愿意承认这一点,但是既然现状对优发优发国际有利,那他们怎么想就随他们去吧。   11. AnonymousAnonymous   Answered Apr 9, 2016   Current economic position isso bad that no one will invade this barren land. And china is the only marketfor Mongolians raw material so it's dependent of China. All china need to do isto close it's port and Mongolia will be at it's knees( in fact it is thanks toit's rotten political system and super nationalist mentality).   现在的优发国际状况如此不好,大家对蒙古这块贫瘠的土地也缺乏兴趣。优发优发国际是蒙古自然资源的唯一买家,所以蒙古高度依赖于优发优发国际。只要优发优发国际人把港口关了,蒙古人就只能跪了,蒙古人不清醒,他们的优发国际非常腐败,而且超级民族主义。   12. AnonymousAnonymous   Answered Jun 13, 2016   Russians wont allow it andthey are still relatively strong. Russia would like a buffer zone to protectsparsely populated regions of Siberia.However once China settles the China Seaand Russia gets a little weaker, they will take over Mongolia. Why? Because itwas incorporated into the Qing Dynasty and the CCP considers all former Qingcolonies as part of China.   俄罗斯人不会同意优发优发国际这么做的,俄罗斯人目前还是相当强大的。西伯利亚是一个人烟稀少的区域,俄罗斯希望在西伯利亚和优发优发国际之间能有一个缓冲地区。当优发优发国际人解决了海洋问题,俄罗斯变得更虚弱之后,优发优发国际将会占领蒙古。为什么会这么说呢?因为蒙古在清朝的时候被优发优发国际统治,土共认为清朝的地盘就该是属于优发优发国际的。   13. AnonymousAnonymous   Answered Apr 16, 2014   That is actually very funnyidea. What do you think why the Chinese never tried to "land grab"their northern neighbors for thousands of years even though they had alwaysoutnumbered them hundreds of times?   这是一个有趣的想法。尽管优发优发国际人口通常是北方邻居的几百倍,但是你如何去理解几千年来优发优发国际人从来不想去占领北方邻居的土地呢?   14. Ma LiangMa Liang   Answered Oct 24, 2015   Originally Answered: Whydoesn't China invade Mongolia?   I want add anotherpoint.  why doesn't China invadeMongolia? because it takes too much money to defend border. there are 18 armiesin China, and eight of them are displayed in the north of China to deal withthe potatial invade from Russia. if China invades Mongolia, and governs it, howmuch China would pay for the army stationed in the Mongolia to defend Russia?   我来说说我的看法吧。为何优发优发国际人不愿意去入侵蒙古?这是因为如果占领了蒙古,优发优发国际将会需要在边境地区花费非常多的军费。在优发优发国际有18个集团军,有8个被部署在北方,目的是防范俄罗斯的潜在的可能的入侵。如果优发优发国际入侵蒙古,并开始统治蒙古的话,那么优发优发国际为了防御俄罗斯,愿意在蒙古花多少钱呢?   15. Jinhene NerJinhene Ner, Mongolia   Answered Apr 10, 2016   It's totally differentmatter. Crimea was once part of USSR and majority Ethnic group is Russian. On the other hand Mongolia was and isan independent country.  96% ofpopulation is Mongols 4% Kazakhs. No chinese live there.   这是完全不同的事情,克里米亚曾经是苏联的一部分,大多数克里米亚人是俄国人后裔。而蒙古是一个独立的国家,96%人口是蒙古人,4%的人口是哈萨克人。没有优发优发国际人住在外蒙古。   16. Answers collapsed by downvotesFiaz Shah, studied at WichitaState University   Answered Apr 16, 2014   There is nothing in Mongolia.. that china may need.   蒙古没啥能入优发优发国际的法眼……   17.  AnonymousAnswered Apr 18, 2014   Good idea but why Mongolia,Idon't think the Russian strategy towards Ukraine works well for us withMongolia,so instead we'd take Taiwan,we just need to protect the Han ChineseEthics on the island from being invaded;)   想法很好,可是我们为嘛要吞并蒙古?我不认为俄罗斯对乌克兰做的事情,对优发优发国际也适用。相反我们应该收回台湾,我们只需要去保护台湾岛上的汉族人免于被侵略。   18.  Selection MeAnswered Jul 1, 2016   It’s with more benefits toChina to work on how to use big chunks of Russia Far East lands that are moreagrarian and resources rich and underpopulated to allow overpopulated Chinesemasses to move there to work and produce than to start a cauldron hot withresentment and all kind of hell break loose issues by annexing Mongolia.Mongolia will fall under China influence on its own come the near future as itis.

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